Google Keyword Planner is where plenty of owners look first to see whether anyone searches for what they sell. Use it to learn the words customers type and to compare one term with another, but don’t use it to decide whether your local service has enough demand. Google’s own definition shows why: the average monthly searches figure counts a keyword together with its close variants, and by default it’s averaged over 12 months. For a seasonal trade or a suburb-level service, that single number can point you the wrong way.
Key takeaways
- Keyword Planner shows the words people search and how terms compare with each other.
- Average monthly searches include close variants and default to a 12-month average.
- The Competition column counts advertisers. It says nothing about how hard a term is to rank for.
- To size real local demand, read impressions and impression share from a small exact-match campaign.
What does Google Keyword Planner actually measure?
Keyword Planner lives in the Tools menu of a Google Ads account. It has two ways in: Discover new keywords, which suggests terms from words or a website you enter, and Get search volume and forecasts, which checks a list you already have.
It returns two kinds of number. Historical metrics describe searches that already happened. Forecasts estimate what a campaign might get, and Google says they take bid, budget and seasonality into account, while historical metrics don’t.
Here’s what each main column means, in Google’s terms, and what it leaves out.
Column | What Google says it is | What it doesn’t tell you |
|---|---|---|
Avg. monthly searches | The average number of searches for a keyword and its close variants, for the months, location and network you pick | How many searchers would hire you, or which month they search in |
Competition (low, medium, high) | The number of advertisers that showed on the keyword, relative to all keywords across Google | How hard it is to rank in the organic results |
Top of page bid (low range) | Roughly the 20th percentile of what advertisers have historically paid for a top of page bid | What you’ll pay per click |
Top of page bid (high range) | Roughly the 80th percentile of the same bids | The most you could pay |
Forecasts | Estimates built from your bid, budget and seasonality, refreshed daily from the last seven to 10 days | A promise of clicks, calls or jobs |
In plain terms, the low bid figure sits about where the cheapest fifth of historical top of page bids ended, and the high figure about where the top fifth began.
One more detail trips people up. Google says historical stats like average monthly searches “are only shown for exact matches”. Choose broad, phrase or exact match and the search number stays the same. Only the forecast changes.
Why does the 12-month average mislead a seasonal trade?
Google’s Keyword Planner help page puts it plainly: “By default, the number of searches for the term (regardless of language) is averaged over a 12-month period.”
That’s fine for a service people need all year. It’s a problem for one with a season.
A hypothetical example. Take a hypothetical air conditioning installer in Adelaide. These monthly search counts are made up for this example, not Keyword Planner data.
Month | Hypothetical searches |
|---|---|
January | 2,200 |
February | 1,600 |
March | 900 |
April | 500 |
May | 350 |
June | 300 |
July | 300 |
August | 350 |
September | 500 |
October | 900 |
November | 1,500 |
December | 2,100 |
12-month average | about 960 |
Hypothetical monthly searches, made up for this example.
The headline figure says about 960 a month. In January, this installer’s count is more than twice that. In June and July, it’s under a third.
Plan staff, stock and ad budget from the average and you’ll be short in summer and overspending in winter. In this example the peak lands across Christmas and January, so the month range is what you need to read.
How to read the months instead:
- Set the location to where you work. Google lets you enter countries, territories, regions and cities. Pick your city or region, not Australia.
- Set the date range to the last 12 months, then look at the month-by-month view rather than the headline average.
- Compare the same months from the year before if you can, so one odd summer doesn’t set your plan.
- Check each location separately if you work in more than one city. Different climates can mean different peaks.
Why do close variants blur small local terms?
Google defines the figure as searches for “a keyword and its close variants”. For exact match, Google’s close variants can include misspellings, singular or plural forms, stemmings such as floor and flooring, abbreviations and accents. They can also include reordered words with the same meaning, and added or dropped words like in, for or the.
So carpet cleaner Geelong, carpet cleaners Geelong and carpet cleaner in Geelong may all feed one blended number. Two practical rules follow.
- Don’t add rows together. If similar phrasings show similar numbers, adding them can count the same searches twice.
- Treat small numbers as a rough size, not a count. For a suburb-level service, a few variants can make up most of what you see.
What Keyword Planner is genuinely good at here is wording. It shows you when people type one phrase far more than another, and that’s worth knowing before you write a page or an ad. If you work in a trade, our list of SEO keywords for plumbing businesses shows how that wording turns into a page plan.
Does high competition mean a keyword is hard to rank for?
No, and it’s an easy one to misread.
Google defines Competition as “The number of advertisers that showed on each keyword relative to all keywords across Google.” It’s an advertising measure, and it’s specific to the location and network you’ve selected.
A term can show High because plenty of businesses bid on it, while the organic results are thin. Another can show Low while page one is full of strong, established sites. For SEO, look at who actually ranks on the results page for that search. Use the Competition column to judge how crowded the ads will be.
How do I test real demand before I spend big?
Run a small exact-match campaign and let Google show you the searches it actually saw.
- Pick three to five exact-match keywords for your main service and area.
- Set the location to the area you really service. Not the whole state.
- Set a daily budget you’re happy to treat as research.
- Run it across your normal busy and quiet days, so one big day doesn’t skew the result.
- Read two numbers: impressions, and search impression share.
- Open the search terms report. Google says it shows how your ads performed when triggered by actual searches, so you’ll see the real wording people used.
Impression share is the key. Google defines it as “the percentage of impressions that your ads receive compared to the total number of impressions that your ads could get.” Turn that around and you can estimate the searches your ad was eligible for.
Impressions ÷ impression share = estimated eligible impressions.
A hypothetical worked example. Say your test ads got 180 impressions at a 30% search impression share. Both figures are made up for this example.
- Estimated eligible impressions: 180 ÷ 0.30 = 600
- That’s roughly 600 times your ad could have shown, on your exact-match terms in your service area, during the test.
That’s still Google’s estimate. Google says eligible impressions are estimated using targeting settings, approval statuses and quality. But it’s measured on your terms, in your area, in the weeks you ran, which makes it much closer to real local demand than a national 12-month average.
How many of those searches turn into jobs?
Fewer than you’d hope, and that’s the real reason the search number alone can’t size a business.
Take the 600 from the test. The rates below are made up for this example. They aren’t benchmarks.
- If your ad showed on all 600 and 1 in 10 searchers clicked: 60 clicks
- If 1 in 4 clicks became a call or form: 15 enquiries
- If 1 in 3 enquiries became paid work: 5 jobs
Change any rate and the answer moves fast. That’s why the useful questions are what a click costs in your trade and how many clicks it takes to land one job. Our breakdown of Google Ads cost in Australia works through that maths by trade.
Then count the jobs, not the searches. If your enquiries come through your website, the GA4 reports worth checking every month will show you which pages and channels they came from.
The fair case for Keyword Planner
It deserves credit. It’s built on Google’s own search data, it sits inside an account most advertisers already have, and it gives a small business a solid starting list.
A common view among advertisers is that it’s an estimate tool, useful for relative volume rather than absolute truth. That’s fair, and it’s where the tool is strongest. Comparing two phrasings, spotting the words customers use that you don’t, and grouping terms into ad groups are all things it does well.
Where it goes wrong is when one averaged number gets treated as a forecast of jobs.
The bottom line
Use the planner for words, test for demand
Google Keyword Planner is the right tool for finding and comparing the words your customers type. It’s the wrong tool for deciding whether your local service has enough demand, because its average monthly searches blend close variants and average 12 months. Read the month-by-month view for seasonal work, ignore Competition when you’re thinking about SEO, and size real demand with a small exact-match test.
Want ads built on real demand, not a yearly average?
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Important FAQs
Is Google Keyword Planner accurate?
It’s accurate enough to compare terms and find the words customers use, but its search numbers are estimates. Average monthly searches include close variants and, by default, average 12 months. For a seasonal or suburb-level service, read the monthly view and test demand with a small exact-match campaign before committing a big budget.
What does competition mean in Google Keyword Planner?
Competition measures advertisers, not SEO difficulty. Google defines it as the number of advertisers that showed on a keyword relative to all keywords across Google, for your selected location and network. A high rating means crowded ads. It doesn’t tell you how hard the term is to rank for organically.
Why is my campaign data different from Keyword Planner?
Keyword Planner’s search numbers average a keyword and its close variants over the months you select, usually 12. Your campaign shows what happened on your terms, in your area, during the weeks it ran. Use impressions and impression share from the campaign for a closer read on real local demand.
Can I use Google Keyword Planner for SEO?
Yes, for wording. It shows which phrases people search more often, which helps you name pages and services. It’s weaker for difficulty, because its Competition column measures advertisers. For SEO, check who already ranks on the results page for each term before deciding which ones to target.
